40% of jobs to be rendered obsolete by tech

Nearly 40% of the jobs that exist today have a moderate to high risk of being rendered obsolete in the next 10-15 years due to new technologies, a new report warns.

The Committee for Economic Development of Australia's new research report, conducted with the collaboration of National ICT Australia (NICTA), examines the possibilities of Australian job losses due to computerisation and automation.

It finds that in some parts of rural and regional Australia there is a high likelihood of over 60% job losses, which could have severe economic consequences.

Automation has already started replacing jobs in some industries, such as agriculture, mining and manufacturing. But the report finds that even those industries that have so far been immune to the technology upheaval, such as the healthcare sector, are likely to be affected as the pace of innovation accelerates further.

Report author Professor Stephen Martin said while new technologies will also create new jobs and industries, Australia risks being left behind if it doesn't immediately start investing in the right areas.

“Our labour market will be fundamentally reshaped by the scope and breadth of technological change, and if we do not embrace massive economic reform and focus on incentivising innovation, we will simply be left behind in an increasingly competitive global marketplace,” he said.

“Creating a culture of innovation must be driven by the private sector, educational institutions and government. However, government must lead the way with clear and detailed education, innovation and technology policies that are funded adequately.”

Martin slammed the government for sorely lacking the commitment needed to link education to innovation policy, noting that Australia’s track record here is “appalling compared to other countries”.

He noted that while the five industry growth centres announced by the government last year should be critical to driving innovation, the government has only allocated $190 million in funding over four years.

“In comparison, the UK Catapult Centres, which they are based on, have been allocated almost $3 billion over the same period,” he said.

To cope with technology disruption, Australia will also need to rethink the approach taken to reskilling workers as entire fields of employment disappear.

“Australia has the lowest levels of unemployment benefits of the OECD for a single person recently unemployed and often programs to assist with skills training do not start until a person has been unemployed for some time,” Martin said.

He contrasted this with the approach taken in Denmark to reskill mature-age workers, which involves generous unemployment benefits and often programs to help unemployed people gain new skills. Often these programs commence before an individual is made unemployed.

A separate report, conducted by the Australian Computer Society and Deloitte Access Economics, highlights the growing importance of digital technologies to the Australian economy.

The Digital Pulse 2015 survey finds that digital technologies contributed $79 billion to the Australian economy in FY14, accounting for 5.1% of the total gross domestic product.

The number of ICT workers also increased to 600,000 during the year, or about 5% of the workforce, with 52% of these working in industries outside of ICT itself.

But the report warns that Australia must improve ICT training to match the significant and growing demand for ICT talent. Demand is expected to grow to 700,00 workers in 2020, leaving a hole of 100,000 employees to fill. But graduates with ICT qualifications have fallen significantly since the early 2000s, meaning Australian businesses are already having to turn overseas to fill the skills gap.

“Australia needs a workforce that is equipped with the ICT skills necessary to fuel its digitally driven economic growth,” the report states, adding that “government, businesses, education institutions and industry associations must all play a role in positioning the Australian workforce for the future.”

Addressing the skills shortage should begin at the primary school education level, the report states, advocating that computing skills and technical ICT capabilities be included in the curriculum from a young age. Research shows that only 3% of year 6 students frequently use ICT in schools for technical tasks.

“The new Australian Curriculum, which includes a technologies learning area, will be a significant step in the process of teaching students to use computational thinking and information systems to define, design and implement digital solutions,” the report added.

“Not only do Australian students need to be digitally literate, but they are also required to be capable in building digital solutions for the problems of the future.”

ACS also recommends that higher education institutions start promoting the strength and diversity of ICT career paths to students, and that businesses provide opportunities for employees to develop their ICT skills through on-the-job training and other methods.

Image courtesy of Amanda Slater under CC