BYOD decline? Not quite yet

It's the time of the year when all the major analyst firms are rolling out their predictions for what's going to be big news in the coming year. Reading across them, it's clear that most of them are in agreement with each other. It's not surprising as most look at the least year or so and extrapolate what's happening today into a view of what's happening tomorrow. But one item in one report has stood out.

Nucleus Research has released its Top 10 Predictions for 2013 - plus a couple of bonus predictions. Some of their predictions are, well, predictable, but two stood out to us as they seemed to be swimming against the popular tide.

They predict that spending on security will dip and that BYOD will be in decline. The fall of BYOD has sparked some interesting discussions (like this one on LinkedIn). Nucleus Research supposes that enterprise will grow up and better manage mobility. As a result, the need to consider BYOD solutions will diminish.

In contrast, Gartner's Top 10 puts growth in mobile devices and applications at the forefront of what CIOs will be worrying about next year. Similarly, IDC suggests an increase in the number of mobile devices in businesses.

In our view, Nucleus has probably got it right but is a few years early with its prediction.

BYOD is a response from users to the inability of enterprise technology managers to keep up with the needs of individuals in the business. In large organisations, it's very difficult to cater for the personal needs of every user. In response, IT adopted a 'one size fits most' approach where hardware and software was standardised. IT gets the benefit of simplified management, improved cost control and better support but users miss out on innovative new platforms and systems. 

What tipped the power back in favour of users was a confluence of factors. New tablet hardware, spearheaded by the iPad, proved that mobile computers didn't have to be heavy and relatively slow. Software development tools have changed rapidly with the internet becoming the network so that delivery was no longer tied to the corporate LAN.

As businesses address the issues in their systems and strategy that drove users towards BYOD, the desire for users to turn their back on the IT department and find their own solutions will diminish. IDC predicts: "More than Half of ICT Purchasing Decisions will Involve a Line of Business Executive." In other words, choice of platforms and systems will no longer be wholly in the IT budget. Those purse strings will be controlled by the business with IT. Although many businesses say this is the case, the final budget responsibility is still with IT today. In future, the pendulum of responsibility will swing away from the CIO to others in the executive suite.

This transition can't happen overnight or even in a year. It might happen quickly in some businesses and industries. But others will take longer. In working with a successful start-up, we've observed some interesting dynamics as the business and IT work together in a true consensus through the entire decision-making process for everything from choosing desktop computing platforms to office connectivity. We think this model is what will change BYOD to CYOD - choose your own device.

For CIOs, this means a new model of working with the business and changing their attitudes to infrastructure, user and systems support. It will mean that the coming years of software development will need a client-independent mentality. It will mean designing for different devices and user interfaces. And it will mean a more open mind and flexible approach to giving users what they demand.