Predicting mobile industry issues for 2023

In 2023 we will see the use of verifiable credentials start to gain real traction. It’s the next generation of digital identity in which people keep their identity information in their own personal digital vault, rather than it being managed by a third party.

So, for example, if a user visits a website, they can quickly and securely verify their identity and other key information, such as date of birth. The source of that information will not be on some central database but a set of cryptographically signed documents that the user controls either on their device or in a personal data vault.

And the important thing is that everything about those transactions will be standardised by brand new World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) standards. So, the key to this is not the technology but the W3C standards.

This will also help solve the dual problems of digital identity and personal authentication. These are two very different problems. In the case of digital identity, the biographical information is either true or it’s false and it all relates to a single individual who owns that digital identity.

But with personal authentication, we need to ensure that the person asserting that digital identity is entitled to own that set of information. So, one part is about assembling and authenticating the biographical details and personal information, while the other is making sure that you are the physical human being to whom that information belongs.

As the technology converges around this issue, we will see some great solutions that will create a new layer of trust around verified credentials. This will benefit everyone, especially those in developing countries where bank accounts and documentation are less common. With trusted verified credentials, people in these regions will suddenly be able to access a whole range of services that were previously closed off to them.

I think that’s going to be a real game changer.

But what are the thoughts of my fellow MEF board members? Here are their predictions for the mobile industry in 2023.

Dawood Ghalaieny, MEF board member and CEO of Zariot

With the increasing number and complexity of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and the amount of sensitive data they collect and transmit, security is a critical concern. Ensuring the security of IoT systems is essential both for protecting the privacy and safety of individuals and organisations as well as maintaining the integrity and reliability of critical infrastructure.

“For example, consider the effect of everyone in the UK turning on their washing machine at the same time. Not only might it overload the national grid, but it could also lead to a temporary water shortage. Instead of washing machines, consider a similar scenario with IoT devices. As IoT devices — such as EV charging points — become commonplace, the risk and damage an attack might cause increases,” Ghalaieny said.

“Unfortunately, the industry is failing to self-regulate when it comes to IoT security. Paying a premium to enforce IoT security or standards isn’t profitable, so there is no incentive for device manufacturers to worry. As a result, regulators are currently grappling with the issue and, I expect, will be publishing legislation in 2023.”

This will make it more difficult for businesses to enter the IoT market and existing market players will need to be ready to develop stricter IoT security standards in response to this legislation. Rather than simply pushing new products out to market, manufacturers will need to address security issues by embedding measures such as encryption, authentication, access control and vulnerability management into their IoT devices. So, Ghalaieny advises to prepare now!

Waheed Adam, MEF board member and Executive Chairperson at iTouch

In the coming year, we will see a huge shift in Rich Communication Services (RCS), with many more enterprises having conversations with their customers rather than a one-way unilateral communication.

Brands are already slowly evolving into a more human-like entity. Even on social media, brands are almost emulating human behaviour to the world at large, which helps them embody their value systems. It also helps showcase their offerings as a human salesperson would, conversing with their end consumers in that same tonality.

With the rapid development in conversational AI, powered by Conversational Process Automation (CPA), artificial intelligence can bridge the gap between the customer and process automation systems by automating both conversations and processes.

“A business could launch a WhatsApp channel, showcase their items and then allow customers to converse with an online AI salesperson to ask questions and complete their purchase. The power of conversational AI can be combined with breakthrough innovative payment technology, such as Unified Payments Interface (UPI), to allow customers to make bank payments instantaneously via their mobile number,” Adam said.

So, not only can customers browse through a carousel of products and talk to a sales AI, they can even select the items, put them in a cart, and actually make the online payment transaction through WhatsApp. There is no need to step out of the WhatsApp ecosystem onto an external website. Everything is available end-to-end.

This is a powerful process and adds a lot of value to OTT services like WhatsApp and its regional equivalents. It brings omnichannel processes into a single channel, joining up the user’s journey on their behalf.

Adam also predicts a shift in digital transformation.

This accelerated rapidly in 2020 and 2021 due to the lockdowns and people working from home. As a result of COVID, the telecom space saw this unexpected upward swing. However, Adam does think there has been some overinvestment because of all this growth and some of these excesses were shaved off as we emerged from lockdown in 2022.

“In 2022, the US lost 10,000 tech jobs, with internet giants like Twitter, Meta and Amazon dramatically reducing their workforce. And by utilising more efficient ways of working, such as remote working and IoT, we will see more shifts in digital and workforce transformation in 2023,” he said.

However, Adam says that it’s not all bad news: organisations are going all out to welcome this tech talent, which means the demand is still there. But Adam thinks that the demand for tech talent has become more equalised, with shifts from very large organisations to large and medium organisations and from the global West to developing countries. The overall trend is still towards more tech transformation, and Adam expects we will just see a small correction in 2023.

Jason Lunn, MEF board member and Global Connectivity, CPaaS at Cisco

Currently, mobile operators are really struggling to find ways to grow their revenues beyond traditional services: voice, SMS and data. Lunn says that one asset mobile operators can monetise is mobile identity

“Over the coming year, I expect we will see a breakout of systems whereby enterprise can query mobile operators to verify a customer’s age, address, credit status, etc,” he said.

This information is known and verified by mobile operators to establish a contract, and it is tied to a unique number: a phone number. So, phone numbers could become the unique identifier to verify all this information.

“It will be interesting to see how enterprise will take all those pieces of information and use it to formulate an opinion on a customer that can be used and monetised. It would make things much easier for customers — rather than filling out forms and completing Know Your Customer (KYC) data, they could simply link their mobile number. In turn, this would also be very helpful to businesses,” Lunn said.

The challenge of globalisation is also on his radar.

To ensure the security and standards across globalised technology, Lunn says that we need an alignment of policies. Yet, with the growth in tech dominance in India, China and Africa, this alignment is shifting out of the hands of the global West.

The traditional idea of globalisation was free trade across the world. Yet new technology is no longer an issue for the consumer market: it has become an issue of national security. In the telecoms industry the tech infrastructure is now national infrastructure, and in countries like the US and UK, governments have specifically limited technology developed in China due to concerns around trust and security.

“The interconnected digital world is not aligning with the increasingly disconnected political world, and I think that will lead to some major challenges. Over the next few years, governments are going to understand how important the players within the connectivity ecosystem are and how they play a key role within critical national infrastructure,” Lunn said.

He expects this to lead to greater government subsidies to help telecoms businesses make their technology and security more robust and/or more regulation around security to help protect this critical national infrastructure.

Sustainability is on many minds these days, and Lunn believes this is the year where the mobile industry really needs to make great efforts regarding this issue.

The mobile industry is a major contributor to global carbon emissions: 3.5% of global CO₂ emissions deriving from telecoms, which is double the amount from aviation. Lunn says that mobile operators can become more sustainable by ensuring that their code base is as efficient as possible. That could mean using more advanced programming languages — like Closure — that require fewer lines of code, reducing the amount of computer power that’s required.

“This can be more difficult for older players in the market as they will have a lot of legacy code and servers to update. But as new players enter the market with more efficient technology, sustainability will suddenly become a competitive advantage. So, big players need to look into sustainability and efficiency now to prepare for that coming future,” he said.

We also need a clear standard and benchmark for measuring CO₂ efficiencies. If we reduce the computer power needed, how much CO₂ have we actually saved? This would make it easier for enterprise to prioritise efficiencies that lead to greater sustainability.

There is a lot of focus on sustainability and CO₂ reduction at every level — from the UN to the US tax code. Lunn thinks we will begin to see the fruits of that labour over the next year or so, with new legislation bringing clear benchmarks and responsibilities for the industry, and we need to be preparing for that change now.

*Andrew Bud CBE FREng is Board Chair of MEF (Mobile Ecosystem Forum), a global trade body established in 2000 and headquartered in the UK with members across the world. As the voice of the mobile ecosystem, it focuses on cross-industry best practices, anti-fraud and monetisation. The Forum provides its members with global and cross-sector platforms for networking, collaboration and advancing industry solutions.

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